The labor market in 2026 feels mostly stable, but stable isn’t the same as comfortable. You’ve heard it a hundred times before but we’ll say it again: Hiring is slow, teams are lean, and the people making compensation decisions are doing it with less margin for error than they’ve had in years.
We pulled together data from several sources – including our own 2026 Salary Trends Report covering 28 roles across five disciplines – to give you a grounded look at what’s actually happening with pay and hiring right now.
Advertised salaries are slipping – for the second month in a row.
Revelio Labs’ April labor data shows salaries from new job postings declined for the second consecutive month, down another tenth of a percent from March. That’s a small number on its own, but the direction matters. When advertised pay starts softening, it tends to signal where employer confidence is heading, and right now it’s continuing to head in a cautious direction.
Job postings overall were down 1.5% from March and 5% compared to this time last year. Nearly every industry except Wholesale Trade saw a net decline. The sectors pulling back hardest on postings include Education and Health Services, Financial Activities, and Leisure and Hospitality.
Source: Revelio Labs
Salaries are holding flat. Bonuses are picking up the slack.
According to Korn Ferry’s latest pulse survey of more than 4,250 organizations, the median base salary increase in the U.S. sits at 3% in 2026, and fewer employees are eligible for increases than last year. At the same time, nearly 75% of companies expect to pay bonuses at or above target.
The shift is deliberate. With uncertainty around fixed costs, more companies are leaning on variable pay to retain talent without locking in permanent increases. It’s a strategy that works… until it doesn’t. When a competitor offers a higher base, even a strong bonus history often won’t compete.
Source: CFO Brew / Korn Ferry
The job-switching premium is shrinking.
For years, the fastest way to get a meaningful raise was to leave. That seems to be changing. ADP’s Pay Insights data – tracking more than 26 million monthly paychecks – shows the gap between what job-stayers and job-changers earn is now at its narrowest point since 2020. Job-changers still earn more, but the premium has compressed significantly. January’s pace of pay growth for job-changers tied its slowest rate since February 2021.
For employers, this is actually good news: the financial case for leaving is weaker than it’s been in years. For employees, it means the calculus on switching is more complicated than it used to be.
Source: ADP Research
The market is stable, but not strong.
March BLS data showed a rebound in hiring to 5.6 million – but Revelio’s April read shows that momentum hasn’t held. Postings continue to cool, and the broader picture remains what economists have started calling a “low-hire, low-fire” environment. Yes, movement is happening, but it’s at a much lower volume. Because of that, every open role matters more and every comp decision carries more weight.
Source: CFO Dive
Five generations. One workforce. Very different experiences.
For the first time in history, five generations are sharing the workplace simultaneously. ADP Research’s latest survey of more than 39,000 workers globally found these groups are living very different realities.
Older workers (55+) are the most likely to doubt their skills, the least likely to feel supported, and more likely to feel underpaid – despite often being in higher pay brackets. Younger workers are more optimistic but carry higher stress. Only 26% of all workers globally feel confident they have the skills to advance.
For teams managing across generations, compensation alone isn’t the whole picture. Development, recognition, and support structures matter, especially for mid-level talent most at risk of quiet disengagement.
Source: ADP Research
Where early-career talent is landing.
ADP’s annual graduate ranking – built on payroll data from more than 409,000 workers ages 20–29 – found the best markets for new graduates shifted significantly from last year. Birmingham topped the list for the first time, driven by strong hiring and rapid wage growth. Tampa jumped from 26th to 2nd. For employers, the takeaway is about pipeline: early-career talent is concentrating in markets with strong hiring momentum, and that shapes where your next generation of mid-level talent will come from.
Source: ADP Research
What Celarity’s data shows for Minnesota and national markets.
We benchmarked 28 roles across Marketing, HR, Finance, Operations, and Digital – pulling from 45M+ salary profiles. A few things stood out:
Minnesota entry-level pay is competitive in Marketing and HR – Coordinators and Specialists in both disciplines meet or beat national averages. But senior roles tell a different story. Senior Marketing Managers earn about $10,900 less at the median than their national peers. VP/CFO roles in Finance run $30,000–$33,000 below national. For companies competing for experienced leadership locally, that gap matters.
On the bonus side: HR Generalists in Minnesota average just 0.65% – the lowest of any role in the report. Financial Analysts nationally average 6.59%, nearly four times the Minnesota rate for the same role. Directors of Digital Marketing in Minnesota carry a 14.27% average bonus – the highest of any role across all five disciplines.
The full salary ranges, broken out by 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile for both Minnesota and national markets, are in the report.
Looking for custom data specific to your roles, experience levels, industry or market? We also offer custom salary benchmarking – starting at $500 for up to 10 roles. Reach out to jamie@celarity.com or visit celarity.com/custom-salary-report to learn more.