By Jamie Duong
On September 30, John, Connor and I went live on LinkedIn to talk about the job market. We had a great turnout and even better questions, which tells us a lot of you are trying to make sense of the same mixed signals we are.
So here’s the recap: what we talked about, what the data says (including a few numbers that came out after we went live), and what we’re seeing with our own clients. If you’d rather watch, the full replay is here.
The job market really does depend on who you ask
If the headlines and your day-to-day don’t line up, you’re not imagining it. The September jobs report came in soft, while private payroll data and weekly unemployment claims looked healthier. Here in Minnesota, the state is growing faster than the country overall, but most of that growth is in healthcare, manufacturing and construction rather than the professional roles a lot of us work in.
By the numbers
- The U.S. added 29,000 jobs in September, and unemployment ticked up to 4.2% (CNBC)
- ADP’s private payroll count for the same month was 90,000, and hiring picked up for the first time since May (ADP)
- Unemployment is still lower than it was a year ago, and first-time unemployment claims have stayed under 200,000 for four straight weeks (Guy Berger, Macro Mostly)
- Minnesota added 45,041 jobs over the past year, a 1.5% growth rate that’s five times the national 0.3% (DEED)
- Minnesota’s unemployment rate is 4.4%, a bit above the national rate (DEED)
Few are getting fired, and fewer are moving
The best way we’ve heard this described is “the great stay.” Layoffs are low, people aren’t quitting, and companies aren’t adding many new seats. That’s frustrating if you’re job searching, but it also means most people who have jobs are keeping them. Part of what’s going on: companies are getting more done with the teams they already have.
By the numbers
- The hiring rate is 3.2%, one of the lowest readings outside the pandemic (EPI)
- The quit rate is 1.9% (BLS)
- Layoff notices fell to 17,000 in August, the lowest month of 2026 (Revelio)
- In Q2, output grew 1.7% while hours worked grew 0.3% (Indeed Hiring Lab)
Who’s hiring right now
The hiring that is happening is concentrated at the ends. Large companies (1,000+ employees) and small businesses are hiring faster than they were before COVID, while the middle has been quieter, especially in Minnesota. That matches what we see. Our Fortune 500 interim work has stayed steady, and most of our perm searches are with companies of 20 to 100 people, many of them private equity-backed with growth plans to deliver on.
There are some encouraging signs heading into the end of the year, too.
By the numbers
- 36% more U.S. employers plan to add staff than cut in Q4 (ManpowerGroup)
- 31% of employers expect to grow headcount in 2027, versus 9% expecting cuts (The Conference Board)
- HR job postings are up 15.4% year over year and nearly back to pre-pandemic levels (Guy Berger, Macro Mostly)
- Minnesota staffing and temp employment is up 5.9% over the year (DEED)
Companies are hiring to solve a problem
This came up more than anything else in the session. A few years ago, a hiring manager would call us and say, “I need a graphic designer who knows Figma and Photoshop.” Today it sounds more like, “My team has this problem, and I need someone who can solve it.” Titles are getting fuzzier, and the roles getting filled are more senior: leaders who can set the strategy and do the work, often as player-coaches. In fact, the number of director-level and above roles we work on has increased 500% since 2018
When it comes down to two final candidates, the tiebreaker we hear most is industry experience. Hiring managers read it as less ramp-up time.
Pay: what’s happening, and what’s coming in 2027
Paychecks are growing, but slowly, and for a lot of professional roles they haven’t kept pace with prices since 2019. We’re also seeing more candidates trade some salary for the right commute, flexibility or culture, especially after a longer search.
The bigger story for the next few months is 2027 planning. Raise budgets are holding steady, so most companies will need to be choosy about where extra dollars go. The biggest pay bumps right now go to people who change jobs.
By the numbers
- Average hourly earnings are up 3.0% over the past year (CNBC)
- People who switched jobs saw 4.8% pay growth in September, versus 3.0% for those who stayed (ADP)
- The median 2027 salary increase budget is 3.5%: 3.1% for merit and 0.5% for promotions, equity and market adjustments (The Conference Board)
- 57% of employers are paying above their planned salary range, and 87% of those say it’s to land specialized skills (Robert Half)
- Since 2019, prices rose 25.5%. Financial and HR manager pay rose 28%, while accountant pay rose 17% (BLS)
Contract work is getting more specific
Contract roles are a big part of our business, and they’re getting more targeted. Instead of hiring someone full-time, more companies are bringing in senior expertise for a defined problem, for exactly the hours they need. One in four of our contract roles is now part-time, up from one in seven before COVID
Where people work
Return-to-office gets a lot of headlines, but the numbers have barely moved. Remote and hybrid work has been flat for two years, and it’s about twice as common in the functions we hire for. If budget is tight, flexibility is still one of the strongest levers you have.
By the numbers
- 22.6% of U.S. workers did some remote work in March 2026, nearly the same as two years earlier (BLS)
- Remote or hybrid share of job postings: marketing 25%, finance 23%, accounting 22%, HR 21%, versus 8.4% across all jobs (Indeed Hiring Lab)
- 36% of employers raised required office days this year (Robert Half), but 30% of workers say nothing would bring them back full-time (FlexJobs)
The entry-level squeeze
Companies aren’t letting junior people go. They just aren’t hiring many. Researchers disagree on how much is AI and how much is remote work making it harder to train new people, and the answer is probably some of both. Agencies and service firms are already feeling the gap in their mid-level bench. The good news is there are signs it’s starting to ease.
By the numbers
- Entry-level job postings are down more than 35% since January 2023 (Revelio)
- Employment for 22–25-year-olds in AI-exposed jobs is 19% below where it would otherwise be (Stanford)
- Remote work explains about 64% of the rise in unemployment for college grads under 29 (NY Fed)
- Unemployment for people in their early 20s is lower than it was a year ago (Guy Berger, Macro Mostly)
For early-career folks: use AI to learn the execution work faster, and find ways to get in the room with senior people. That’s where judgment gets built.
What this means for you
If you’re job searching
- Know what problem you solve. Get clear on the industries and challenges your experience fits best, and lead with that.
- Ask why the role is open. What happens if it doesn’t get filled? What are they hoping to fix? Shape your story around the answer.
- Rethink “I grew the team.” Growing a team from 3 to 20 used to be a great story. Right now, many hiring managers hear cost. Tie your results to revenue, margin or cash flow.
- Make industry fit easy to see. Use your resume real estate to show direct industry experience, since it’s often the tiebreaker.
- Go targeted. Auto-apply tools flood stretched hiring managers with applications. Networking and outreach that names the problem you solve will get you further.
If you’re hiring
- Start with the problem. Define what success looks like in six months before writing the job description.
- Consider part-time or contract. A senior expert for 15 hours a week can solve a specific problem without adding full-time headcount.
- Check your ranges before you make an offer. With raise budgets tight and job-switchers getting bigger bumps, knowing the market rate protects both your offers and your best people.
What’s next
Most economists expect a cooling market rather than a downturn, and some of the latest weekly data is pointing up. The longer-term story is structural: an aging workforce, slower immigration and AI are all changing how teams get built. We’ll keep watching the upcoming jobs report and continue sharing what we’re seeing.
By the numbers
- Economists project job postings to fall 1.4% through June 2027 and unemployment to reach about 4.4% (Indeed)
- Indeed job postings have trended slightly up into early October (Guy Berger, Macro Mostly)
If you want to talk through any of this, John, Connor and myself are all on LinkedIn, and we’re always happy to chat!